[Lowe] Breaking at ESPN: The G League this season will use the "one free throw counts for all the points" rule on shooting fouls -- on 2s and 3s.

据著名NBA记者Zach Lowe报道，G联赛将在新赛季试行新的罚球规则。新规则将规定每次站上罚球线只能出手一次。

————————

[–]76ers choccychippancakes 1646 指標 10小時前

this sounds absolutely horrible

76人球迷：这绝对是瞎搞！

[–]Lakers LonzoBBBall 634 指標 9小時前

I might be in the minority on this but I like this in theory. There are too many stoppages that kill game flow, at least this quickens things

湖人球迷：也许我是少数吧，不过从理论上来说，我还蛮喜欢这个新规。现在的比赛中断太多了，影响了流畅性，至少这个新规能加快罚球进度。

[–]Warriors TheSpaceCowboyx 54 指標 9小時前

I know but as it states in the article, more people are likely to miss the first shot, but then make the next one or 2. This gives fouling teams a bigger advantage

勇士球迷：我知道，不过就像文章里所强调的，更多的球员可能会投丢第一罚，然后命中接下来的一罚或两罚。这就会让犯规的球队获利更多。

[–][HOU] Clint Capela JagMaster9000 54 指標 9小時前*

It also punishes foul drawing

火箭球迷：新规也能惩罚造犯规的行为啊。

[–][HOU] Clint Capela JagMaster9000 451 指標 9小時前

Players shooting free throws is also the most boring part of a game so making it go by quicker def helps

火箭球迷：而且球员罚球也是一场比赛里最乏味的部分，所以加速这个进程肯定是有好处的。

[–]Trail Blazers DunderMifflinCompany 206 指標 9小時前*

Will encourage flopping and foul drawing though. Imagine telling a guy like Harden you get 2 or 3 points for making a free throw.

开拓者球迷：不过这也会鼓励假摔和造犯规啊。你想想，要是你跟哈登这种球员说罚一次篮就能得到两三分，那会怎样。

[–][IND] Victor Oladipo hacky_potter 255 指標 9小時前

Is it actually going to change anything other than make things go faster? I mean it's not like Harden doesn't already do this and make free throws.

步行者球迷：除了加快罚球进程，那这个新规还能影响啥？搞得像哈登现在就没造犯规罚球一样。

[–]Trail Blazers DunderMifflinCompany 87 指標 9小時前

It puts more emphasis on free throws. I'd rather try to draw a foul and make a free throw for 3 points than make a contested 3.

凯尔特人球迷：新规加大了罚球的影响。比起在身体接触下强投三分，我倒更愿意造犯规，用一次罚球换3分。

[–]Opagea 95 指標 9小時前

How is there a greater emphasis?

One free throw for 3 points isn't worth any more than three free throws for 1 point each.

怎么就加大了罚球的影响了呢？

一次罚球拿三分并不比三次罚球每次一分更有价值啊。

[–]Cavaliers MrDot777 158 指標 9小時前

But making 3 free throws is harder than making 1

骑士球迷：可是罚篮三次名中比罚篮一次命中更难吧。

[–]Cavaliers BrynArgoll 139 指標 9小時前

And missing 3 free throws is harder than missing 1.

The value of the free throw doesn't change at all.

骑士球迷：那你罚丢三次还比罚丢一次更难呢。

罚球的价值压根就没变。

[–][MIN] Ricky Rubio Hastyscorpion 55 指標 9小時前*

Yeah making 3 is harder than making 1 but the part you are missing is that if you miss the 1 free throw you get zero points. If you miss one of the 3 free throws you still have a chance to make the other 2. So if I am James Harden making 88% of my free throws. 12% of the time I will get 0 points from a trip to the line.

The expected value of the free throw is exactly the same. Over the long hall you will get the same number of points from free throws as you would under the current system. Because your free throw shooting percentage doesn't change.

森林狼球迷：是，罚球三中三比一中一更难，可是你没说的是，要是你一罚不中，那就是0分。如果你三罚丢了一，那你还有机会命中另外两球。所以如果我是哈登这种罚篮命中率88%的球员，那我在新规下站上罚球线，有12%的几率是0分。

罚球的期望值还是一样的。新规之下，你靠罚球的得分其实是不变的，因为你的罚球命中率没变啊。

————————

[–]Rockets swaggy_p 721 指標 10小時前

FYI for the people who didn't actually read the article - this wouldn't effect the last two minutes of regulation and OT.

火箭球迷：提醒下那些没仔细读文章的人，这次的新规不会在常规时间最后两分钟和加时赛实行。

[–]Pistons Knutt_Bustley 1338 指標 9小時前*

That somehow makes less sense

活塞球迷：这就有点说不过去了吧。

[–][OKC} Steven Adams GrumpyBearBank 12 指標 7小時前

That is the dumbest rule on the planet then.

I ducking hate special rules in the last two minutes. So dumb.

雷霆球迷：这就是世界上最愚蠢的规定。

我特么神烦最后两分钟的特殊规则。太蠢了。

[–]davegoodmen 17 指標 8小時前

This make sense. It allow for a situation where you are down by 3-4, with the ball in hand. If you get foul, you have a chance to score the first bucket, and intentionally miss and try to get the rebound to tie the game. With the new free throw counts for all, you don't have the luxury of that free first shot for a point.

其实是合理的。要是你在比赛最时刻落后三四分，握有球权，如果你被犯规了，那你就有机会罚中第一球，然后故意投丢，从而抢板争取三分扳平。要是实行新规，那你想都不要想二次抢板。

[–]Supersonics TheDarkGrayKnight 299 指標 9小時前

I get their point. If you have an all or nothing free throw at the end of the game you basically want to foul all the time, especially if the team happens to have a bad free throw shooter on the court.

超音速球迷：我理解这种担忧。要是你在比赛最后时刻有一次罚球就能决胜负的机会，那你基本就想的是犯规，特别是在对方球队刚好有一个罚球差的投手在场的情况下。

[–]_Kevbot_ 11 指標 7小時前

Wouldn’t you want a bad free throw shooter to shoot 2 shots worth 1 each instead of 1 shot worth 2?

那要这么说的话，难道不是更希望那个罚篮差的人罚两次价值一分，而不是一次价值两分的篮吗？

[–]XYHopGuy 23 指標 7小時前

It depends on the score and the goal, but for a team further behind they would care more about less shots. Degrees of freedom come into play here.

Assume the shooter is a 50% ft shooter. While both scenarios (1 shot worth 2 pts and 2 shots worth 1pt) have the same expected value (1pt), the actual outcomes are much different:

For two shots, 25% 0pts 50% 1pt 25% 2pts

For one shot: 50% 0pt 50% 2pt

这就得看比分和战术目标了，不过对于落后方来说，应该会希望罚篮次数更少。这就可以看出自由度了。

假设那个球员的罚篮命中率是50%，不管是价值两分的1次出手，还是两次价值一分的出手，期望值都是一样的，实际结果则很不一样：

1次出手：0分概率25%，1分概率50%，2分概率25%；

2次出手：0分概率50%，2分概率50%。

————————

[–]Raptors Konfliction 161 指標 10小時前*

Oh interesting.. I don't know what I think of this.

I wonder what's the stats on 3 point free throws, does the first bucket have better or worse odds of going in then the other 2? This change kinda plays on the first free throw stats now, rather then overall FT%.

猛龙球迷：这就有意思咯……我也不知道该作何感受。

我倒想知道3分犯规罚球的数据，比起后两罚，第一罚进的概率大呢，还是不进的概率大？这次新规有点针对第一罚数据啊，而不是整体的罚篮命中率。

[–]Raptors lifecantgetyouhigh 130 指標 8小時前

Yeah people are treating FTs as independent events when they are not. They’re close enough that it might not matter but if I am down 2 and have 3 FTs vs 1 FT that’s a big difference in my nervousness.

猛龙球迷：是啊，大家觉得每次罚篮都是独立的，实则不然。比分接近的话，或许不重要，要是我落后两分，那三次罚球定胜负和一次定胜负对我造成的紧张感可就差别很大了。

[–]Raptors Konfliction 44 指標 8小時前

Yea, I'd love to see the stats if the first FT is more likely to fail. Cause in my head I imagine it's a "woops I f'd up, lets correct it, sink the next two" but I could be wrong.

猛龙球迷：是的，我想看看数据，是不是首罚更容易罚丢。因为要我是球员就会想“擦打铁了，赶紧调整，把后面两球投进”。

[–]meming_and_dreaming 8 指標 10小時前

players tend to shoot a lower percentage on their first free-throw compared to the 2nd or 3rd, so a rule of this nature would likely hurt guys like harden, not help

比起第二罚和第三罚，球员更容易投丢第一罚。所以这种新规很可能会对哈登这种球员有害，而不是有利。

[–]Thunder bumbaclarrt 13 指標 9小時前

Am I the only one that likes this idea? Will cut down fouling and speed up the game. What’s the harm?

雷霆球迷：难道只有我喜欢这个新规吗？它能减少犯规，加速比赛进程。有啥不好的？

[–]Spurs Thehelloman0 27 指標 9小時前

I think this is a great idea.

马刺球迷：我觉得这个新规很棒。

[–]TheBrazilianKD 71 指標 10小時前

Reasons this is good: It saves time.

Reasons this is bad: ??? Can somebody chime with a real argument other than 'lol horrible' ?

说它好的理由：缩短时间。

说它不好的理由：？？？你们除了说“哈哈哈，瞎搞”之外，能拿出点有说服力的说法不？

[–]Trail Blazers irelli 41 指標 10小時前

Because it dramatically increases variance.

I think that's bad at least. You'll end up with more upsets with this rule

开拓者球迷：因为这大幅增加了比赛的变数啊。

我觉得至少这是不好的，因为在新规之下，你会看到更多冷门。

[–]Celtics jasonmb17 17 指標 10小時前

I kinda love how much more tension it'll add to free throws. It's pretty common for guys to miss the first one, then settle down and drain the second.

凯尔特人球迷：新规能让罚球变得更刺激，我有点喜欢。毕竟大家罚丢第一球是很普遍的，然后才想着淡定搞定第二罚。

[–]igotzquestions 10 指標 8小時前

I haven't seen it mentioned but free throws really are a very important portion of the game for stamina for all players. I think this very much could realistically make players play less minutes as they are spending less time recovering during these dead ball situations which I think most everyone would agree would be a net negative for the league.

我看这点还没人说过，不过对于球员的赛中体能恢复而言，罚篮真的是非常重要的部分。我觉得新规的出现会让球员们的场上时间减少，因为他们在死球局面下恢复体力的时间更少了，我觉得这一点应该是大家都认可的负面影响。

————————

[–]Lakers cantcooklovefood 83 指標 10小時前

I have to see it before I critique it

湖人球迷：喷之前我得先看看。

[–][SAS] Mike D'Antoni The98Legend 110 指標 9小時前*

Watch the Big 3. It’s a bit silly to me but I don’t mind it too much. The reason I don’t like it in the NBA is because it seems like they’re experimenting with things that don’t need to be changed. People say it’ll save time, but how much time is this really going to save?

Maybe I’m one of the few who think the length of basketball games is actually fine right now. I’m guessing most people who like this rule also want the season shortened

马刺球迷：那你看BIG3联赛就知道了。我觉得有点蠢，但是我也没那么在意。我不想它在NBA实行，是因为他们在尝试一些不必要的改变。很多人说新规会节省时间，可是这其实真能解约多少时间呢？

或许觉得现在的NBA比赛长度刚刚好的人很少，反正我算一个。我猜啊，大部分喜欢这个新规的人，也希望赛季缩短。

[–]Lakers cantcooklovefood 17 指標 9小時前

Oh I didnt know they had this rule in Big3. I've watched highlights but didnt catch it. The big3 has so many different rules, I'll look closer though. Thanks for the tip

湖人球迷：我以前还不知道BIG3有这个规则呢，我一般都是看集锦，还没注意到这个。Big 3的很多规则都不一样，不过我以后会看的更仔细的。

[–]Hornets DudflutAgain 31 指標 8小時前

In big 3, the three point free throw is actually taken from the three point line. It's dope

黄蜂球迷：big 3联赛里，三分罚球还真是从三分线上罚的。太牛了。

[–]76ers WhiteStockton 66 指標 10小時前

I don't know how I feel about this. I feel like it will incentivize intentional fouling since it's more likely to result in a zero point play, at least when a subpar FT shooter is at the line.

76人球迷：我也不知道对新规是何感受。我就觉得这会激励那些故意犯规行为，因为0分的概率更大了，至少当一个罚篮低于水准的球员站上罚球线时是这么回事。

[–][OKC] Russell Westbrook FeedtheKiwi 10 指標 10小時前

They ought to do this but move the 3 pt free throw attempt to the top of the key. Basically giving the fouled player a "free attempt" for either 2 or 3 points depending on where they were fouled.

雷霆球迷：联盟应该这么做，可是得把三分罚篮移到三秒区弧顶。那些被犯规的球员到底是能在哪轻松拿两分或三分，这得看他们在哪里被犯规。

————————

来源：Reddit

编译：云长刮个痧